| 基于系统动力学的客滚船航行安全仿真 |
| 投稿时间：2016-09-05 修订日期：2017-03-01 点此下载全文 |
| 引用本文：郭国平,徐元春,吴兵.基于系统动力学的客滚船航行安全仿真[J].上海海事大学学报,2017,38(2):12-16. |
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| 基金项目:交通运输部重点项目（2015-318-J34-090） |
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| 中文摘要:为保障客滚船航行安全，在分析客滚船航行安全影响因素的基础上，构建客滚船航行安全因果关系图，并运用Vensim DSS构建客滚船航行安全仿真模型.对渤海上的某一客滚船的航行安全进行仿真，分析安全投入增加对客滚船航行安全水平的影响，得出结论：客滚船航行安全系统是一个复杂的动态系统，其航行风险主要是由人、货物、自然环境、交通环境、硬件设施和管理等6个因素交叉耦合导致的，其中人、货物和自然环境对客滚船的航行安全水平影响显著.这可为客滚船航行安全风险管理及防控方面的研究提供参考. |
| 中文关键词:航行安全 客滚船 风险管理 系统动力学 |
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| Simulation on Ro-Ro passenger ship navigation safety based on system dynamics |
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| Abstract:To ensure the navigation safety of Ro Ro passenger ships, based on the analysis on the factors influencing ship navigation safety, the cause and effect relationship diagram of Ro Ro passenger ship navigation safety is drawn, and the simulation model of Ro Ro passenger ship navigation safety is built by the Vensim DSS. The navigation safety of a Ro Ro passenger ship at Bohai Sea is simulated, and the effect of the increase of safety input on the ship navigation safety level is analyzed. The conclusions are the following: the navigation safety system of Ro Ro passenger ships is a complex dynamic system, and the navigation risk is caused mainly by the crossing and coupling of 6 influencing factors which are human, goods, natural environment, traffic environment, facilities and management factors. The human, goods and natural environment have a significant effect on the ship navigation safety level. It can provide some reference for the research on risk management, prevention and control of the Ro Ro passenger ship navigation safety. |
| keywords:navigation safety Ro Ro passenger ship risk management system dynamics |
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