| 基于贸易引力模型的我国沿海港口外贸货物吞吐量影响因素 |
| 投稿时间：2010-09-14 修订日期：2011-05-02 点此下载全文 |
| 引用本文：祝建,余思勤.基于贸易引力模型的我国沿海港口外贸货物吞吐量影响因素[J].上海海事大学学报,2011,32(2):15-19. |
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| 基金项目:上海海事大学研究生创新基金项目(yc2010011) |
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| 中文摘要:为探究影响我国沿海港口外贸货物吞吐量的因素，以及这些因素的影响因金融危机的爆发而发生的变化，建立基于贸易引力模型的我国沿海港口外贸货物吞吐量影响因素的向量自回归(Vector Auto Regression, VAR)模型，研究金融危机爆发前后交通运输固定投资、人民币实际有效汇率、外商直接投资、世界经济状况和国内经济状况对我国沿海港口外贸货物吞吐量的影响.由方差分解分析发现：对交通运输体系固定投资的增加在金融危机后较之金融危机之前更能提高沿海港口外贸货物吞吐量；人民币实际有效汇率和外商直接投资的波动在金融危机之前、后对沿海港口外贸货物吞吐量均不构成显著影响；金融危机后世界经济的复苏明显提高沿海港口外贸货物吞吐量；我国国内经济状况对沿海港口外贸货物吞吐量的影响在金融危机后大幅削弱. |
| 中文关键词:沿海港口 货物吞吐量 投资 人民币汇率 世界经济 国内经济 向量自回归 |
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| Influence factors of foreign trade cargo throughput of China’s coastal ports based on trade gravity model |
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| Abstract:To study the factors which influence the foreign trade cargo throughput of China’s coastal ports and the changing of the influence with the eruption of the financial crisis, the Vector Auto Regression(VAR) model of foreign trade cargo throughput of China’s coastal ports is established based on the trade gravity model, and influences of fixed transport investment, the RMB exchange rate, foreign direct investment, world economic conditions and domestic economic conditions on foreign trade cargo throughput of China’s coastal ports before and after the eruption of financial crisis are studied. Partitioning of variance shows: increase of fixed investment in transport system after the financial crisis improves more foreign trade cargo throughput of coastal ports than that before the financial crisis; both fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate and foreign direct investment have little influence on foreign trade cargo throughput of coastal ports before and after the financial crisis; the world economy’s recovery after the financial crisis dramatically improves the foreign trade cargo throughput of coastal ports; influence of China’s domestic economic situation on foreign trade cargo throughput of coastal ports reduces greatly after the financial crisis. |
| keywords:coastal port cargo throughput investment RMB exchange rate world economy domestic economy vector auto regression |
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