| 基于随机森林的船舶避台失败原因分析 |
| 投稿时间：2021-03-28 修订日期：2021-06-29 点此下载全文 |
| 引用本文：王元栋,盛进路,刘琴.基于随机森林的船舶避台失败原因分析[J].上海海事大学学报,2021,42(3):47-51. |
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| 中文摘要:为提高船舶避台成功率，采用随机森林对船舶避台失败的原因进行分析，并与决策树进行对比。结果表明：随机森林和决策树对船舶避台失败事故的平均诊断率分别为8423%和7556%；随机森林对一般事故和重大事故具有更高的诊断率，分别达到900%和961%。事故原因分析表明：造成船舶避台失败的首要原因是船员责任感不强；船员责任感不强、决策出现差池和船舶日常管理混乱极易导致船舶避台失败事故。本文研究可为船舶实施合理避台措施提供一定的参考。 |
| 中文关键词:关键词：台风 避台事故 决策树 随机森林 船舶 |
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| Analysis on failure reasons of ship avoiding typhoon based on random forest |
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| Abstract:In order to improve the success rate of ship avoiding typhoon, the random forest is adopted to analyze the failure reasons of ship avoiding typhoon, and is compared with the decision tree. The results show that: the average diagnostic rates of the random forest and the decision tree for the failure accidents of ship avoiding typhoon are 8423% and 7556%, respectively; the random forest is of higher diagnostic rate for general accidents and serious accidents, and the diagnostic rates reach 900% and 961%, respectively. The analysis on accident reasons shows that: the primary reason for the failure of ship avoiding typhoon is the lack of crew’s responsibility; the lack of crew’s responsibility, the incorrect decision making, and the chaotic daily management for ships can easily lead to the failure accidents of ship avoiding typhoon.It can provide reference for the implementation of reasonable measures for ship avoiding typhoon. |
| keywords:typhoon avoidance failure accident of ship decision tree random forest |
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