| 船舶交通量三阶段法预测模型及其应用 |
| 投稿时间：2021-03-25 修订日期：2021-06-28 点此下载全文 |
| 引用本文：王伟,余志成,张泰山,吉鹏.船舶交通量三阶段法预测模型及其应用[J].上海海事大学学报,2021,42(3):23-28. |
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| 基金项目:江苏省社会科学基金（18GLB013）；江苏省政府引导性计划（BR2020090） |
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| 中文摘要:为精准预测船舶交通量，基于多源数据融合，提出用于预测船舶交通量的三阶段法，分别预测交会水域、单条航道的船舶交通量，并以长江六圩水域以及苏北运河航道为例进行实证研究。结果表明，三阶段法预测模型具有较强的预测精度。预计2040年苏北运河航道货运承载能力饱和度达到17.13%，即未来苏北运河航道利用水平较为合理，但仍处于较低水平，尤其是蔺家坝—宿迁窑湾航段和宿迁窑湾—淮安航段的利用水平更低。本文预测方法和结果可为水路交通规划与调度管理提供支撑。 |
| 中文关键词:水路运输 三阶段法 多源数据 船舶交通量预测 航道货运承载能力 |
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| Three stage prediction model of ship traffic volume and its application |
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| Abstract:In order to predict the ship traffic volume accurately, based on the fusion of multi source data, a three stage method is put forward to predict the ship traffic volume. The ship traffic volume in the intersection waters and a single channel is predicted, respectively. Taking Liuwei waters of the Yangtz River and the Grand Canal in the north of Jiangsu (North Jiangsu Canal, in short) for case study, the results show that the three stage prediction model has strong prediction accuracy. The freight carrying capacity saturation of North Jiangsu Canal is predicted to reach 17.13% in 2040, that is, the utilization level of North Jiangsu Canal in the future is reasonable, but it is still at a low level, especially the utilization levels of Linjiaba Yaowan of Suqian section and Yaowan of Suqian Huai’an section are lower. The prediction methods and results of this paper can support the waterway traffic planning and scheduling management. |
| keywords:waterway transport three stage method multi source data ship traffic volume prediction channel freight carrying capacity |
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