| 水上货物运输风险演化系统动力学仿真 |
| 投稿时间：2017-05-09 修订日期：2017-06-23 点此下载全文 |
| 引用本文：张阳,席永涛,胡甚平,张锦朋,危小瑶,刘明明.水上货物运输风险演化系统动力学仿真[J].上海海事大学学报,2018,39(1):19-24. |
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| 基金项目:上海国际港务（集团）股份有限公司科技创新项目（2017）（引航站_17KY-04B-31Z） |
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| 中文摘要:为刻画水上货物运输风险的动态性和因素关联性，采用系统动力学仿真水上货物运输风险的演化规律。基于“人、机、环境、管理、货物”理论，建立水上货物运输风险指标体系。结合风险演化的相关理论，采用系统动力学构建风险演化模型。通过分析各风险因素间的量化因果关系，应用层次分析法、信息熵法以及最小二乘法对风险因素进行定量分析。对实际案例的仿真表明，基于系统动力学的风险演化模型可揭示风险演化过程，显示系统风险随时间的变化趋势。 |
| 中文关键词:海运安全 风险演化 系统动力学 |
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| System dynamics simulation on risk evolution of cargo transportation on water |
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| Abstract:To describe the dynamic characteristic and factor correlation of cargo transportation risk on water, the system dynamics is adopted to simulate the risk evolution law of cargo transportation on water. Based on the theory of “people, machine, environment, management and cargo”, the risk index system of cargo transportation on water is established. Based on the theories of risk evolution, the risk evolution model is constructed by the system dynamics. By analyzing the quantitative causality among risk factors, the risk factors are analyzed quantitatively by AHP, the information entropy method and the least square method. The case simulation shows that the risk evolution model based on the system dynamics can reveal the risk evolution and the trend of system risk with time. |
| keywords:Maritime safety, risk evolution , system dynamics, simulation |
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